Three major German automakers, including Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi, recently announced the opening of an electric vehicle (EV) production plant in China. This undoubtedly tells us that European automakers depend on China for electric vehicle production.
Does China monopolize the production of electric vehicles?
China has become the world's largest electric vehicle market. In 2020, the total sales of electric vehicles will reach 1.3 million, accounting for more than 40% of the global sales in that year. In addition, China also plays a leading role in battery production. China controls three-quarters of the market for raw materials used in these batteries, including lithium, cobalt and nickel.
In addition, China has the advantages of scale, cheap labor and rich professional knowledge, which makes its production capacity extremely competitive.
Pay more attention to the automobile supply chain
Although all large automobile manufacturers have set ambitious production targets for electric vehicles, the electric vehicle supply chain is still anchored in China. For example, Mercedes Benz plans to realize all electric vehicles by 2030, while BMW expects that the sales of electric vehicles will account for 50% by the end of this decade, and Audi plans to end the production of internal combustion engine vehicles by 2026.
The question is, how much should companies or governments invest in EV production or infrastructure? The answer to this question is very complicated, because it is impossible to completely decouple from China's supply chain. There are a large number of manufacturing links in China.
According to the latest industry market dynamics, the supply of high-end semiconductor devices is still in serious shortage. Compared with the previous quarters, the order shipment ratio has slightly decreased, but it still remains within the range of 1 – 1.2:1. We expect to face a shortage of MCU / SOC business / FPGA supply for most of 2023.
Microcontroller (MCU): quota allocation measures are being taken for most products.
STMicroelectronics: STMicroelectronics hopes to complete the booking of the business in 2023, so the delivery cycle of all MCU products is extended to 83 weeks. The delivery cycle is only for reference. All MCU products are allocated by quota. The market supply of STM32F and stm8s is seriously short.
Microchip: the delivery cycle of all MCU products is 62 weeks. The products covered by the "preferred supply plan (PSP)" implement the "no cancellation, no return (NCNR)" order policy. The supply of parts covered by the "preferred supply plan (PSP)" is relatively stable, while the parts not included in the plan continue to be backordered.
NXP: the lead time of most MCU and MPU products is still 52 weeks. The company is implementing the NCNR policy in 2023. Devices facing supply bottlenecks include MK / kinetis (Grosvenor 90tfs process) and I Mx25x series, etc. the output of such products is extremely low. NXP is promoting the redesign of new generation products (MK - > lpc55, imx25x - > imx6ull).
TI: the customer is required to provide 78 weeks of demand forecast information in order to digest the long-term backlog of orders. The supply of wireless products such as cc1xx / cc25xx is still very tight.
Infineon / cypress: the delivery cycle of MCU products is 52 weeks, and most wireless MCU products are taking quota allocation measures.
Renesas: the lead time is still 52 weeks. Renesas is launching the "demand support plan (DSP)" in 2023.
Core: efr32 / efm32 product series is still in short supply. It is recommended to use "type 2" series devices - efx32xx2.
