Energy storage continues to expand and demand for new types of energy storage is increasing rapidly
I. There is a top-level strategy for the integrated development of road transportation and energy systems.
Road transportation and energy industry are both national strategic and basic industries. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on the complete and accurate implementation of the new development concept to do a good job of carbon peak carbon and the views of the work of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council to accelerate the promotion of the construction of low-carbon transportation system, and the active development of non-fossil energy. In-depth promotion of the integrated development of traffic and energy, relying on transportation infrastructure to develop wind, light and other renewable energy, accelerate the promotion and application of new energy and clean energy for transportation equipment, and promote the integration of low-carbon development, transformation and upgrading of road transportation and energy industry, which will help the transportation industry change from energy "consumer" to "producer and seller", and help the transportation industry change from energy "consumer" to "producer and seller". It will help the transportation industry change from energy "consumer" to "producer and seller", and support the national "dual-carbon" strategic goal.
Promoting the deep integration of road transportation and energy development is a major revolution in the development of the two industries. The Outline for the Construction of a Strong Transportation State emphasizes the need to accelerate the integration and development of transportation infrastructure networks, transportation service networks, energy networks and information networks, and to optimize the transportation and energy structure. In the Implementation Opinions on Strengthening the Integration and Interaction of New Energy Vehicles and Power Grids jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in December 2023, it was pointed out that a new type of industrial ecology of vehicle-network integration and interaction should be vigorously cultivated to vigorously support the construction of a high-quality charging infrastructure system and the high-quality development of new energy vehicle industry. Digging deeper into the integrated development of traffic and energy contained in the comprehensive benefits of pollution reduction and carbon reduction is the new direction of road traffic development under the vision of sustainable development, which is of great significance for promoting the economic development of the transportation industry, accelerating the construction of a strong transportation country, and constructing a modern comprehensive three-dimensional transportation system with high quality.
Second, the current situation and development trend of road traffic and energy system
1. Steady increase in automobile ownership, new energy vehicle ownership is increasing rapidly.
China's automobile industry is accelerating the transition to new energy, traditional fuel car ownership is expected to peak in 2025-2030. 2021-2023 China's automobile ownership were 302 million, 319 million, 336 million, new energy vehicle ownership were 7.84 million, 13.1 million, 20.41 million, new energy vehicles, compound annual growth rate (61.3%) significantly higher than the overall level of automobiles (5%). ) is significantly higher than the overall level of automobiles (5.5%). It is expected that in 2025, 2030, 2035 China's car ownership were 360 million, 420 million, 490 million, of which the new energy vehicle ownership were 40 million, 100 million, 160 million. 2025 ~ 2030 years of traditional fuel car ownership may reach a peak of 320 million, new energy vehicles to achieve an accelerated substitution of traditional fuel cars.
2. Energy demand is rising, and the proportion of new energy supply is increasing rapidly.
With the total energy consumption and fuel vehicle ownership peak, road transport energy consumption will be shifted from gasoline and diesel demand to electricity demand. 2021 ~ 2023, China's total energy consumption of 5.24 billion, 5.41 billion, 5.72 billion tons of standard coal, crude oil dependence on the outside world to remain at about 72%. It is expected that by 2025, 2030, China's total energy consumption will reach 5.8 billion, 5.9 billion tons of standard coal; 2035, China's total energy consumption basically peaked at about 6 billion tons of standard coal. 2021 ~ 2023, China's total energy consumption of road transport was 310 million, 370 million and 440 million tons of standard coal, respectively, and it is expected that by 2025, 2030, 2035 will drop to 4.0 billion. In 2025, 2030 and 2035, the total energy consumption of road transportation in China is expected to be 310 million, 370 million and 440 million tons of standard coal, respectively.
The installed capacity of new energy maintains rapid growth, and the proportion of power supply continues to rise steadily. 2021-2023, China's installed power generation capacity will be 2.3 billion, 2.6 billion and 2.9 billion kilowatts, of which 1.1 billion, 1.2 billion and 1.5 billion kilowatts of new energy will be installed respectively. It is expected that by 2025, 2030 and 2035, China's installed power generation capacity will reach 3.4 billion, 4.6 billion and 5.9 billion kilowatts, of which the new energy generation capacity will reach 2 billion, 2.8 billion and 4 billion kilowatts. 2021-2023, the national power generation capacity will be 8.4 trillion, 8.5 trillion and 9.3 trillion kilowatts per hour, respectively, of which the new energy power generation capacity accounts for 32%, 31% and 34%, respectively. The proportion of new energy power generation will be 32%, 31% and 34% respectively. It is expected that by 2025, 2030, 2035, the national power generation will reach 10.4 trillion, 13.1 trillion and 15.9 trillion kilowatt-hours, of which the proportion of new energy generation will reach 35%, 37% and 39%.
3. The scale of energy storage continues to expand, and the demand for new energy storage is increasing rapidly.
In recent years, China's total installed capacity of energy storage scale of high-speed growth, lithium, hydrogen storage-based new energy storage will become the core increment to drive the total installed capacity of energy storage scale upward.
2021 ~ 2023, China's total installed energy storage scale were 45.8GW, 67GW, 86.5GW, compound annual growth rate of about 37%, of which the traditional pumped storage accounted for 86.2%, 79.3%, 59.4%, respectively, the installed size of the new type of energy storage accounted for 12%, 16.4%, 24%, respectively, the new type of energy storage new installed energy was 4.9GWh, 7.9GWh, 46.4GWh. It is expected that in 2025, 2030, 2035, China's cumulative total installed scale of energy storage is 160GW, 250GW, 330GW, respectively, and the cumulative installed scale of new type of energy storage is 59GW, 120GW, 180GW, with the installed energy of 122GWh, 255GWh, 381GWh, respectively, and the proportion of cumulative installed scale of pumped storage may shrink. The proportion of cumulative installed capacity may shrink to 45%. For new energy storage, it is expected that the cumulative installed scale of electrochemical energy storage in 2025, 2030 and 2035 will be 25GW, 36GW and 66GW, respectively, with lithium batteries still dominating and sodium-ion batteries and liquid-flow batteries supplementing; and the cumulative installed scale of medium- and large-scale long-duration hydrogen storage will be 30MW, 140MW and 630MW, with the volume still small, and is expected to reach 120GW by 2060. 120GW.
